Ekholm points out that our cold winters now are always characterized by numerous cyclones, which pass south of Sweden. They generally come from the west and probably originate in our area fed by the Gulf stream.
Ekholm also points out that P. La Cour has found a considerable divergence in the wind direction during the winter months of Tycho Brahe's time from the present one.
In consequence of this low pressure belt the cyclones now generally pass across the south or middle part of the Scandinavian peninsula, bringing south westerly winds in Öresund. But the eastern or southeastern wind in the winters in Tycho Brahe's time show that the cyclones then took a course more to the south passing as a rule south of Hven, f. inst. from the North Sea, through southern Denmark to Germany.
All through the 14th century earthquakes occurred continually all over Europe (which was the case in Iceland also). The earthquake in Jan. 1348 became famous because it occurred in Avignon simultaneously with the outbreak of the plague (in January according to Guido de Chauliac).
It does not seem strange that the maximum of the tide generating force which so greatly influenced the ocean's movements should be accompanied by earthquakes. The Committee for earthquake statistics appointed by the B.A. has found a periodicity of 18 years in this phenomenon, which seems to hint a connection with moon periods. Also in Scandinavian countries the climatic variations appear to have brought bad years.
Of corresponding events in Iceland during the 14th century Professor P.A. Munch relates: (2)
The areas that can come under consideration are North America and Central Asia. In these parts of the world an intense research work is carried on which I can only slightly touch upon here. Professor E. Huntington (3) has studied the climatic variation both in Asia and America from a geological point of view. In America ha has obtained results of considerable interest by measuring the annual growth of the big Californian fir trees Sequoia gigantea some of which are 2000-3000 years old. I reproduce here Huntington's diagram (Fig 20) of the growth pro decade of their annual rings (i.e. the width of 10 annual ring in mm corrected for the difference in growth in the different ages of the tree. Fig 20. The growth, of course depends on the climate. Huntington writes:
Judging from the diagram such climatic conditions have prevailed during the 13th and 14th centuries. To me it seems probable that the abundant precipitation which favoured the rapid growth of the Californian pine trees was due to the influence of the tide generating force of the circulation in the Pacific. In any case it is interesting to find evidence of exceptional climatic conditions at the end of the Middle ages on the Pacific coast as well as on the Atlantic. In the interior of Asia these variations were still more fateful. The Asiatic steppe lakes alternately expanded and dried up causing destruction to the districts and cities on their shores which compelled the population to migrate. Huntington's investigation of ancient ruins and shorelines bring him to the following conclusion: “All the lakes appear to have experienced a period of contraction in the early part of the Christian era followed by expansion in the Middle ages and by renewed but less marked contraction in modern times.”
The expansion of the steppe lakes in Asia, which indicates a wet period occurred, according to Huntington, simultaneously with the moist period in California or about 1400 a.C. It was preceded by a dry and warm period which turned the kingdoms of central Asia into deserts and caused the invasion of Europe by the steppe people under Genghis Kahn a.o. According to Huntington several such periods of drought have occurred since the beginning of the Christian area both in America and central Asia. Huntington's opinion has recently been confirmed by Brückner who is a great authority on this matter; Brückner writes: “ebenso ist der Mongolinvasion eine Klimaverschlechterung in Asien vorausgegangen. Für diese liegt ein sicheres Sympton vor: das Kaspiche Meer hatte, nach Bauwerken an seiner Uferzone deren Alter sich bestimmen liess, in XII Jahrhundert einen Tiefstand wie niemals nachher und wie lange Zeit nich vorher. Ein silcher Tiefstand kann nur durch grosse Trockenheit hervorgerufen worden sein. Diese Trockenheit kann aber nicht lokal gewesen sein sondern muss, wie das ganze Gebiet der Wolga, so auch weite Gebiete Zentral-Asien mitbetroffen haben.
Brückner also points out how the effects of these wet or dry periods differ according to the geographical position of the countries. A period of draught which turns vast areas in Asia and North America into desert land may bring fertility and opulence to the countries on the Atlantic shores:
Bruckner's investigations concerning the 35-36 years variation of the climate, the rise and fall in the amount of precipitation, the prices of corn, and the emigration within the last century indicate, that the problem has once more become actual as stated by Ehrenheim in his paper “Om climaternas rörlighet” has once more become actual.
The very extent of these variations which encompass both America and Central Asia indicates that they are of cosmic origin. I have suggested that the one of their causes may be the variations in the tide generating force which in the first place depends on the changes of the moon periods. To be valid this explanation must be shown to apply to the great periodic variations encompassing 1800 years as well as to the smaller changes which are accomplished within a month. It is possible that by using the harmonic analysis in a less summary manner than the hitherto we may be able to distinguish between the effects of heat and gravity upon the meteorological variation of short periods. Mr. Strömberg who assisted me in the calculations of astronomic values has brought forward a new hypothesis which is the subject of a special paper and which shows the influence of the variation in the tide generating force on the changes of the mean temperatures in the course of a month. It is a common belief that the moon influences the weather. This belief is founded on the actual experience of mankind through countless ages.
Before starting weather forecasts of long range, however, it would be well to see how far the experience of the past bears out the theory here advanced as to the connection between climatic changes and the variation in the tide generating force. The greatest of the periods I have indicated, the period for the occurrence of the absolute maxima, attained its latest epoch in 1434 and has a periodicity of about 1800 years. The maximum previous to that of 1434 must have occurred about 366 b.C. In the interval there must have been an absolute minimum of the period, some where about 500-600 a.C. What happened then?
As already mentioned, an absolute maximum of the tide generating force occurred 3 or 4 centuries before the Christian area. We must now if this maximum also had effects resembling those in the 14th century a.C. e.g.; the devastating storm floods on the North Sea and the Baltic coasts, the inundations and cold periods in the northern countries with their consequences, famine and migration of the population.
We possess a few historic notes from which we may infer something relating to the climate. The best proofs however the study or archaeology and quaternary geology will furnish. The 3rd and 4th century b.C. denote the earliest epoch of the Iron age or rather the transition from the Bronze age to the Iron age. During the later Stone age and the first stage of the Bronze age, which, according to Montelius, may be put at about 1600 b.C., the Littorina epoch still lasted. The oceanic water had then freer access to the Cattegat and the Baltic, partly because the headland of Skagen was not yet formed, partly because the great depression with which the Littorina epoch commenced had made Öresund deeper than it is now by some 5 or 6 meter. The salt water then entered the Baltic in larger quantities and the North Sea fishes found the same conditions of life in the middle of the Baltic as nowadays in southern Cattegat (see Munthe's map p. 24).
To the geologist of the quaternary period the threshold of the Baltic in the Belts and the Sund constitute a point of vantage in estimating the influence of post glacial changes. The numerous careful measurements of the fossil deposits on the coast of Scania and Sjaeland have given the following results.
During the epoch of the Littorina sea Öresund was 5 or 6 meter deeper than now. The salt oceanic water could then enter the Baltic more easily than now, and this influenced the hydro graphic state and the animal life of the Baltic, which then differed greatly from the present. From the former and present spread of the mollusk fauna Munthe has mapped out the salinity limit (the isohalines) of the surface layer of the Baltic at the Littorina period. A comparison between Munthe's surface map and that of the present time which I have compiled from the F.L. Ekman's observations in 1887 shows the influence on Baltic hydrography caused by a livelier interchange with the waters of the ocean due to the lowering of these thresholds of the Baltic. The state of the Baltic in the neighbourhood of Gothland during the Littorina period corresponds to that of southern Cattegt at the present time.
The salt water had, consequently, a far freer access to the interior of the Baltic, and with the salt water came the sea fish whose migrations at the time extended far into the Central and Northern Baltic. Munthe has been able to reconstruct the hydrographical conditions existing during the Littorina period, in a surface map of the salt percentage existing at that time. If we compare Munthe´s chart of the salt proportion in the Baltic during the Littorina period, i.e., for about 5,000-6,000 years ago, with a similar map for the present day we shall find that the limit for 100% salt, which now lies at the Sund and Gedser, during the Littorina period lay in the gulf of Bothnia, north of Åland. The Annual herring migration from the North Sea, which now extends to the neighbourhood of the Sund, extended during the Littorina period through the whole of the Baltic and into de Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Bothnia.
The same sate of things must have existed as regards the other sea fish: plaise, flounder, cod and sprat etc. Southern forms of molluscs, too, such as Tapes, Littorina, Ostrea, came with the Atlantic waters into the Baltic. Oyster banks existed everywhere in Isefjord, and around the Danish Islands. This was the period of the “kitchen middens”; the great fish migration period, when the gates of the Baltic stood wide open to the fish from the Atlantic. All the species of fish found in the Baltic, except the eel, sea spike, and mackerel, are to be considered as relics from the Littorina period, at the close of which began to rise of the land which restores the depth conditions of the Sund and the Belt to about their present position. This geological alteration, which was completed about 3,000 years ago, had a far reaching influence on the fish species of the Baltic, which are now in a greater or less degree separated from their relations in the ocean and live under other hydrological conditions which have gradually altered their physiological life conditions and have even commenced to set their stamp on the bodily and the exterior form of the fish.
The expression “relict” must, however, be understood relatively. The ancient relicts from the days of the Polar Sea consist, at present, of some lower animal forms, mostly inhabitating the great depths and including too the arctic gray seal, which still lives in the Baltic and in the lake Ladoga in Russia. These are relicts in the original sense of the word, from a period dating 50,000-100,000 years back. Amongst them there is only one certain arctic species of fish, the Cottus quadricornis.
Among the relicts of the Littorina period we reckon, in the first place, the strömling or small herring, the indigenous herring race of the central and northern Baltic, which now lives isolated from the North Sea herring, whose migrations nowadays do not extend past the portals of the Baltic Sea. From the first, the strömling was a local race –a relic of the great herring migrations of a couple of thousand years ago, which has survived and gradually differentiated physiologically and even morphologically into a new species.
After the maximum of the Littorina epoch, which occurred before the beginning of the Bronze age, in the time of the “Kjökkenmöddinger” (ancient refuse deposits) 4000-5000 years ago, and upheaval of the land surface occurred which lessened the depth of the Öresund to something like the present. This elevation of the land was almost complete at the close of the Bronze age 600-500 b.C. From then, for the last 2500 years the bottom of the Öresund has remained nearly constant, its elevation increasing only some 0.25 meter since that time. The atmospheric conditions also changed into the cold climate of the early Iron–age. The transition from the warm climate of the Bronze age was according to Sernander accomplished in a few centuries, 650-400 b.C., at the last stage of the Bronze age. The temperature of this epoch (“the Fimbul winter” of the Sagas) must have been considerably lower, for in the peat layers from that time we find deposits of sub arctic forms. From the end of the Bronze age a gradual elevation of the land has been and is still in progress. Sernander estimates the elevation for the last 2,000 years to:
In the environment of Upsala ……………. 10 meter
On the West coast of Sweden …………… 5 m.
In Öresund ………………………………………..... 0,24 m.
On the Bohuslän shore are found sub fossil remains of Ostrea edulis, Tapes decussates a.d. which formed the ancient oyster beds of the Littorina epoch, but which now are either extinct or survive only as relicts in a few protected localities. They bear testimony both to the climatic deterioration and the upheaval of land during and after the Bronze age.
In Greenland, Spitzbergen, Franz Josef Land and on the coast of North America sub fossil deposits are found of molluscs which must once have lived in warmer waters. This proves that the land elevation and the deterioration of climate have passed over the entire North Atlantic coast. I will give some examples in proof of this.
The Swedish expeditions found in numerous laces on Spitzbergen sub fossil deposits of Mytilus edulis (1). Among such sub fossil relicts from a more temperate sea found on Spitzbergen there are, beside Mytilus, also Cyprina islandica, Littoria littorea, and Anomia squamula, all of which cannot live in the fjords of Spitzbergen under the present conditions.
On the shores of the southeast coast of the Disco bight on Greenland, A.S. Jenesen (2) has found fossil shells of Anomia squamula and Zirphea crispata. The present limit of these molluscs is the south coast of Labrador and the St. Lawrence bight, which shows that during some part of the post glacial time a warmer climate must have prevailed than now.
The chief representative of this warmer postglacial period in the mollusc fauna of East Grönland and of Franz Josef Land is Mytilus edulis (3). On Iceland it is represented by Purpura lapillus (4) a. o.
It is probable that all these southern species of molluscs lived simultaneously in the North Atlantic ocean and its ramifications during this warm postglacial period. For the more distant parts of the ocean this view still must be regarded as a hypothesis but in Sweden and Denmark was have archaeologic finds excavated from the shore deposits which enable us to discern between the warmer and the colder period and to fix the time limit with some approach to certitude. The southern mollusc species are found together with remains from the Bronze age. As to the next period, the rarity of archaeological finds in the graves from the early Iron age about 400 b.C to 100-200 a.C. shows that the high stage of civilization in the Bronze age had for some reason or other declined and that the population had decreased and was less prosperous.
This decline begins already in the last stage of the Bronze age, which according to Montelius occurred 600-500 b.C. About his time another significant alteration took place. Montelius (1) has proved that the amber trade then took up a new route. During the Bronze age amber was chiefly brought from the North Sea coast and transported on the western trade routes, the Elbe, the Weser a.s.o. to the Mediterranean countries. From 700 b.C the western route for this trade was exchanged for the eastern trade route along the Vistula a.s.o. which indicates that the supply of amber was thenceforth derived from the Baltic instead of from the N. Sea. The cause of this was, according to my opinion, the following:
The climatic deterioration which set in towards the end of the Bronze age resembled that which occurred 1800 years later at the end of the Middle ages in so far that violent storm floods devastated the coasts of the North Sea whereby the districts in which amber was found: Friesland, the west coast of Jutland and Schleswig, were destroyed. I here recall the fact that there are statements in literature that connect the invasion by the Teutons and Cimbrians into Gallia and later into Italy with a big inundation of the Sea which destroyed their homesteads in Jutland (the Cimbrian peninsula).
These catastrophes, which probably began as early as the 6th century .bC., struck directly the Scandinavian tribes who invaded the German and later the Gallic countries. Italy first felt the shock when the Gallic tribes began to rally the country. All the stages of this transmigration of the northern tribes, which was the first to shake the power of Rome, can now be traced thanks to the archaeological discoveries which were discussed by the archaelogic and geologic Congresses in Stockholm 1908 and 1910. Kossina of Berlin proved that a transmigration of the tribes from the neighbourhood of the Vistula began about 600 b.C. and Lineau of Lünenburg traced the same movements in the western provinces along the Weser. Next comes the proof to be gathered from ancient writers of History (the ancient Roman writers of History, Florus, a.o.) who tell us of the Cimbrians invading Gallia and Italy threatening the Roman Republic by their great victories at Noreia, where Papirius Carbo was defeated in 108 and Arausio in 109, until Marius by his victory at Aquae Sextiae averted the consequences of this first transmigration of the German tribes from the countries on the Mediterranean.
This was the primary cause of the first transmigration in the first millennium b.C. which commenced with the decline of the Bronze age civilization through catastrophes in Nature which forced the inhabitants of the North Sea countries to emigrate.
If we inquire into the physical causes of the alterations which compelled the tribes of Northern Europe to emigrate we find that a maximum in the tide generating force of the sun and moon must have occurred about the 3rd and 4th century b.C. This caused disturbances in the oceanic circulation such as the storm floods and the inundations of the coast and deterioration of the climate along the borderland of the North Sea and the Baltic. Its effect on the Atlantic coast of Spitsbergen, Iceland and Greenland is traceable by the lowering of the sea temperature which caused the extermination of the delicate southern species of molluscs, the Tapes, Anomia, Zirphaea, a.o. Very likely outbursts of polar ice also occurred as happened 18 centuries later about 1300-1400 a.C.
In the Littorina epoch there were oyster beds along the coast of Sjaelland and the Scandinavian coast offereing great opportunities for the maintenance of a population both with regard to agriculture and fishery. The people of that time traded with the British Isles as well with the Mediterranean countries (1). Besides fur and slaves, amber was the chief article for barter. The supply of amber came then from the North Sea coast. The principal trade route was along the Elbe up to the Danube and then over the Brenner pass into Italy.
The climate at the culmination of the Littorina epoch was Atlantic, insular, but with the beginning of the great land elevation it passes over into a warm and dry “subboreal” stage which lasted the greater part of the Bronze age up to 600-400 b.C. when the climate deteriorated greatly and the civilization of the Bronze age perished with the postglacial warm period.
The land elevation during the Littorina epoch was greatest on the Bothnian coast. North of Hernösand it attained its maximum of 288 meter. At Öresund and the Belts it was at its lowest, about 5-6 meter, which however was sufficient to change the conditions of the fish life in the Baltic in the manner already described.
In the Bronze age, 1600-650 b.C., the Scandinavian climate was warm: all boundaries of vegetation in Sweden were then on the average 3º further north than now. In proof of this B. Sernander(3) relates the following facts.
In Sjaellan millet was grown. Trapa natans, now extinct in Sweden, grew in the lakes of northern Sweden.
The hazel tree grew in higher latitudes, and at greater height over the sea on in the Swedish Nordland.
The boundary of the pine forests lay in higher altitudes on the mountain slopes. (2) Stipa, now extinct safe in the neighbourhood of Falköping in Vestergothland, was then quite common.
According to Sernander (3), the climate during the Bronze age was warm and dry. The land elevation brought large areas of the present Baltic coast of Sweden, f. inst. part of Upland, above the sea level and numerous lakes and marshes were formed, which dried up in the dry climate. Sernander claims to have discovered a “drying zone” in the bottom deposits of these lakes contrasting sharply with the succeeding layers which consist of clay and sand brought thither by the rivers during the next period which was markedly colder.
We have of course no report as to the state of the Greenland Sea at this remote period, but we know something about the sea north of Iceland from Pytheas journey in 330 b.C. He speaks of the sea as “mare pigrum” a sluggish and congelated sea. It is curious that ice and ice hindrance are mentioned just then as being typical for the northern seas and that 18 centuries afterwards, at the next maximum epoch. The Icelandic annals also report new and powerful ice blockades of the coasts of Iceland and Greenland, whereas in the intervening time in the 8th and 9th century a.C. the Vikings appear to have met with no hindrance at all from ice in their journeys to Iceland, Greenland and America. Apparently a warm and iceless period, which favoured agriculture and shipping, and allowed the Scandinavian races to expand in the powerful manner which characterizes the Viking age, must have occurred between the intervals of the two maxima of 400 b.C. and 1400 a.C. This prosperous epoch then corresponds to the former postglacial heat period or the Kjökkenmödding and the earliest stage of the Bronze age.
The remembrance of the bygone civilization two thousand years earlier lived in the myths if the German race and found its expression in the Edda. According to Viktor Rydberg, the myths of the Edda centre about a great catastrophe in Nature, the Fimbul winter, or “Gotterdämmerung” when frost and snow ruled the world for generations.
One relic of the lost civilization appears to have outlived the “Fimbul winter”. By the ancient temple of Upsala stood an enormous tree, perennially green, which is thus described by Adam von Bremen: